FOREWORD
BY THE PRIME MINISTER, THE RIGHT HONOURABLE TONY BLAIR MP
The document published today is based, in large part,
on the work of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC). The JIC is
at the heart of the British intelligence machinery. It is chaired
by the Cabinet Office and made up of the heads of the UK's three
Intelligence and Security Agencies, the Chief of Defence Intelligence,
and senior officials from key government departments. For over 60
years the JIC has provided regular assessments to successive Prime
Ministers and senior colleagues on a wide range of foreign policy
and international security issues.
Its work, like the material it analyses, is largely
secret. It is unprecedented for the Government to publish this kind
of document. But in light of the debate about Iraq and Weapons of
Mass Destruction (WMD), I wanted to share with the British public
the reasons why I believe this issue to be a current and serious
threat to the UK national interest.
In recent months, I have been increasingly alarmed
by the evidence from inside Iraq that despite sanctions, despite
the damage done to his capability in the past, despite the UN Security
Council Resolutions expressly outlawing it, and despite his denials,
Saddam Hussein is continuing to develop WMD, and with them the ability
to inflict real damage upon the region, and the stability of the
world.
Gathering intelligence inside Iraq is not easy. Saddam's is one
of the most secretive and dictatorial regimes in the world. So I
believe people will understand why the Agencies cannot be specific
about the sources, which have formed the judgements in this document,
and why we cannot publish everything we know. We cannot, of course,
publish the detailed raw intelligence. I and other Ministers have
been briefed in detail on the intelligence and are satisfied as
to its authority. I also want to pay tribute to our Intelligence
and Security Services for the often extraordinary work that they
do.
What I believe the assessed intelligence has established
beyond doubt is that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and
biological weapons, that he continues in his efforts to develop
nuclear weapons, and that he has been able to extend the range of
his ballistic missile programme. I also believe that, as stated
in the document, Saddam will now do his utmost to try to conceal
his weapons from UN inspectors.
The picture presented to me by the JIC in recent months
has become more not less worrying. It is clear that, despite sanctions,
the policy of containment has not worked sufficiently well to prevent
Saddam from developing these weapons.
I am in no doubt that the threat is serious and current,
that he has made progress on WMD, and that he has to be stopped.
Saddam has used chemical weapons, not only against
an enemy state, but against his own people. Intelligence reports
make clear that he sees the building up of his WMD capability, and
the belief overseas that he would use these weapons, as vital to
his strategic interests, and in particular his goal of regional
domination. And the document discloses that his military planning
allows for some of the WMD to be ready within 45 minutes of an order
to use them.
I am quite clear that Saddam will go to extreme lengths, indeed
has already done so, to hide these weapons and avoid giving them
up.
In today's inter-dependent world, a major regional conflict does
not stay confined to the region in question. Faced with someone
who has shown himself capable of using WMD, I believe the international
community has to stand up for itself and ensure its authority is
upheld.
The threat posed to international peace and security, when WMD are
in the hands of a brutal and aggressive regime like Saddam's, is
real. Unless we face up to the threat, not only do we risk undermining
the authority of the UN, whose resolutions he defies, but more importantly
and in the longer term, we place at risk the lives and prosperity
of our own people.
The case I make is that the UN Resolutions demanding he stops his
WMD programme are being flouted; that since the inspectors left
four years ago he has continued with this programme; that the inspectors
must be allowed back in to do their job properly; and that if he
refuses, or if he makes it impossible for them to do their job,
as he has done in the past, the international community will have
to act.
I believe that faced with the information available to me, the UK
Government has been right to support the demands that this issue
be confronted and dealt with. We must ensure that he does not get
to use the weapons he has, or get hold of the weapons he wants.